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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Sion 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Sion 2-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.59 xG and FC Sion 1.50 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against FC Sion attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 11/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 40% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 36%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 82%, FC Sion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights