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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Luzern.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Luzern 4-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.69 xG and FC Luzern 1.44 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against FC Luzern attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 15/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 44% | Draw 24% | FC Luzern 33%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 73%, FC Luzern 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. FC Luzern (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights