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Shock result as FC Lugano defy the odds to beat FC Thun 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Lugano beat FC Thun 0-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.76 xG and FC Lugano 1.32 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Thun fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against FC Lugano attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 13/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 48% | Draw 23% | FC Lugano 29%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual FC Lugano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 77%, FC Lugano 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Lugano's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with FC Lugano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Lugano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights