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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Thun cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Basel 1893.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Basel 1893 3-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.48 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 32/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 61% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 18%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 78%, FC Basel 1893 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.66. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights