FC Thun 3-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Thun at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Thun welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stockhorn Arena in Super League (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Thun stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Thun's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of FC Thun's games and 60% of FC Basel 1893's (from FC Thun's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, FC Thun have won 1, FC Basel 1893 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Feb 2026, ended FC Thun 2–1 FC Basel 1893 — a FC Thun win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Thun in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 72% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 78% | FC Basel 1893 59%). Note also that FC Basel 1893 surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while FC Thun recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 2.48 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.357 / defence 0.929 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.006 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.433. FC Thun carry an above-average attack rating of 1.357 — their 2.48 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from FC Thun's last 32 games and FC Basel 1893's last 65.
Result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 1.64 | Draw 4.71 | FC Basel 1893 5.59. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.48 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Thun's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Thun 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 33 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG FC Thun 2.48 / FC Basel 1893 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.357 / def 0.929 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.006 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Thun 3 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 33) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 61% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (1.36) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Thun's last 32 games and FC Basel 1893's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.71
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.82
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
8%
11.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
2%
66.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.34 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Thun come into this having played 32 games, going 23W 2D 7L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.66 PPG from 32 outings (15W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
FC Thun carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Thun's home form reads 11W 2D 3L across their last 16 home games, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 16 away games (8W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Thun are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.56 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
FC Thun (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Thun
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 23W 2D 7L in their last 32 games (2.22 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 15W 8D 9L in their last 32 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Thun's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.19 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2025. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC Thun's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Thun
1
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Thun have won 2, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: FC Thun 3-3 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Thun at 75%, FC Basel 1893 at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Thun and 69% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Thun's games and 62% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Thun's matches and 69% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of FC Thun's recent matches and 88% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Thun cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Basel 1893 3-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.48 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 32/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 61% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 18%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 78%, FC Basel 1893 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.66. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.