🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 6 as FC Thun welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stockhorn Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 4W 1D 0L from 5 Super League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 2.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

In-Play Profile

FC Thun in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games.

FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 80% and FC Basel 1893 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 80% | FC Basel 1893 80%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.30 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.878 / defence 1.045 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.988 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.437. Data: 5 FC Thun games / 38 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Thun 32% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | FC Basel 1893 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Thun (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 80% | FC Basel 1893 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights