FC ST. Gallen 5-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yverdon Sport make the trip to kybunpark to face FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 4W 3D 3L at kybunpark — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at kybunpark than their overall form suggests.
Yverdon Sport's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Yverdon Sport away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Yverdon Sport are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Yverdon Sport in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC ST. Gallen 1W, Yverdon Sport 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2023, ended 4–0 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 58% and Yverdon Sport 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 52% | Yverdon Sport 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.21 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.140 / defence 1.210 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.660 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.133. Yverdon Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing FC ST. Gallen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 FC ST. Gallen games / 31 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 67% | Draw 19% | Yverdon Sport 14%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Yverdon Sport 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yverdon Sport (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 60% | Yverdon Sport 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 67% | Draw 19% | Yverdon Sport 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 53% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.21 / Yverdon Sport 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.140 / def 1.210 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.660 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Yverdon Sport xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
FC ST. Gallen 5 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 67% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
Record (2 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 1W | Draws 0 | Yverdon Sport 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC ST. Gallen's attack rating (1.14) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.66x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 67/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.29
14%
7.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.11
0.91
Yverdon Sport xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
7.08
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
11%
9.10
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
64.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 0.91 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 12W 8D 11L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Yverdon Sport's form line: 10W 7D 14L from 31 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for FC ST. Gallen against 1.19 for Yverdon Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (9W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 3D 11L from 15 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.26 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 12W 8D 11L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 2.00 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 6 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
3
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 2, Yverdon Sport have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FC ST. Gallen, 67% for Yverdon Sport — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC ST. Gallen and 53% for Yverdon Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 67% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 53% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Yverdon Sport 5-1 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.21 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.91 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.14 / defence 1.21 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.66 / defence 1.37, drawn from 67/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 67% | Draw 19% | Yverdon Sport 14%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 52%, Yverdon Sport 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.42 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.