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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over FC ST. Gallen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat FC ST. Gallen 2-4 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.97 xG and Servette FC 1.43 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Servette FC outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against Servette FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 50% | Draw 22% | Servette FC 28%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Servette FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 54%, Servette FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.56 PPG, Servette FC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights