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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC ST. Gallen defy the odds to beat Servette FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat Servette FC 1-0 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.35 xG and Servette FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Servette FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Servette FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 32% | Draw 28% | Servette FC 41%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 52%, Servette FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Servette FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.43 PPG, Servette FC 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights