FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC ST. Gallen (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC ST. Gallen face Lausanne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 10 as FC ST. Gallen welcome Lausanne to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at Kybunpark: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lausanne's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: FC ST. Gallen have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while Lausanne have managed just 1 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC ST. Gallen and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lausanne trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 74% and Lausanne 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 72% | Lausanne 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.63 xG and Lausanne 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.037 / defence 1.077 | Lausanne attack 0.718 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.955 / away 1.846. Data: 37 FC ST. Gallen games / 38 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 42% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 34%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Lausanne 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | Lausanne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 42% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.63 / Lausanne 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.037 / def 1.077 | Lausanne attack 0.718 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.955 / away 1.846 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Lausanne xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Kybunpark.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 42% chance of winning, Lausanne a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
Record (10 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 7W | Draws 2 | Lausanne 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
42%
2.35
24%
4.18
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.06
1.43
Lausanne xG
2.35
42%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.43 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 22W 11D 10L from 43 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 20L across 43 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC ST. Gallen by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 11W 4D 7L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 6W 5D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.30 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Lausanne in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 11W 12D 20L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Lausanne away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.68 PPG; Lausanne away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, Lausanne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lausanne see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 64%, Lausanne 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC ST. Gallen and 59% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 54% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 59% of Lausanne's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.