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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC ST. Gallen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat FC ST. Gallen 0-2 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.00 xG and Lausanne 1.33 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Lausanne attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 25%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Lausanne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 54%, Lausanne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Lausanne's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.48 PPG, Lausanne 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights