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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC ST. Gallen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Grasshoppers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat Grasshoppers 3-1 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.44 xG and Grasshoppers 1.10 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Grasshoppers attack 0.90 / defence 0.80, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 44% | Draw 27% | Grasshoppers 28%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 53%, Grasshoppers 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.45 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights