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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Zurich 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Zurich 2-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.81 xG and FC Zurich 1.06 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against FC Zurich attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 52% | Draw 28% | FC Zurich 20%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 55%, FC Zurich 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.57 PPG, FC Zurich 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights