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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Zurich defy the odds to beat FC ST. Gallen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Zurich beat FC ST. Gallen 1-2 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.79 xG and FC Zurich 1.11 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Zurich outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against FC Zurich attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | FC Zurich 24%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FC Zurich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 53%, FC Zurich 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.51 PPG, FC Zurich 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Zurich win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights