🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Zurich 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Zurich 3-2 at kybunpark, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.41 xG and FC Zurich 1.14 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Zurich outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against FC Zurich attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 42% | Draw 28% | FC Zurich 30%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 49%, FC Zurich 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.43 PPG, FC Zurich 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. FC Zurich (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights