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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Winterthur 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Winterthur 2-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.46 xG and FC Winterthur 0.99 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against FC Winterthur attack 0.68 / defence 1.55, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 68% | Draw 21% | FC Winterthur 12%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 55%, FC Winterthur 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC ST. Gallen arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights