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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Winterthur run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC ST. Gallen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Winterthur beat FC ST. Gallen 1-4 at kybunpark, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.70 xG and FC Winterthur 0.97 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC Winterthur outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against FC Winterthur attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 54% | Draw 25% | FC Winterthur 21%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Winterthur win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 49%, FC Winterthur 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG, FC Winterthur 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Winterthur win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights