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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun finished level at 1-1 at Kybunpark, Championship Group - 38, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.46 xG and FC Thun 1.38 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against FC Thun attack 1.08 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 37% | Draw 30% | FC Thun 33%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 73%, FC Thun 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

FC Thun's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.86 PPG, FC Thun 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights