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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Thun defy the odds to beat FC ST. Gallen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC ST. Gallen 1-2 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.78 xG and FC Thun 1.29 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.00 / defence 0.73 against FC Thun attack 1.25 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 47% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 26%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FC Thun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 71%, FC Thun 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

FC Thun's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 2.14 PPG, FC Thun 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Thun win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights