FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Sion at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Sion to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 4W 4D 2L at Kybunpark — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Sion — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 2.00 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 2 for FC Sion and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–3 with FC Sion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Sion trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 73% and FC Sion 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Sion 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.92 xG and FC Sion 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.045 / defence 1.083 | FC Sion attack 1.034 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.892 / away 1.724. Data: 38 FC ST. Gallen games / 38 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 39% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 39%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | FC Sion 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Sion 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 39% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.92 / FC Sion 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.045 / def 1.083 | FC Sion attack 1.034 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.892 / away 1.724 • Poisson stance: Draw (22%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.93
FC Sion xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Kybunpark.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 39% chance of winning, FC Sion a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
Record (10 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 4W | Draws 4 | FC Sion 2W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC Sion (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.04x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.6%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
39%
2.56
22%
4.63
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.85
1.93
FC Sion xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
6%
17.63
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.93 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 23W 11D 10L from 44 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 9L across 44 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.82 PPG, FC Sion on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 10W 4D 7L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 8W 8D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.75 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Sion in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
FC Sion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 23W 11D 10L in their last 44 games (1.82 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 20W 15D 9L in their last 44 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Sion away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.52 PPG.
Have FC ST. Gallen or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC ST. Gallen have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, FC Sion in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
4
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Sion have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 62%, FC Sion 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC ST. Gallen and 67% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 67% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 67% of FC Sion's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.