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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC ST. Gallen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Sion.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Sion 3-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.55 xG and FC Sion 1.45 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against FC Sion attack 1.07 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 40% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 36%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 53%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.51 PPG, FC Sion 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights