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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Sion 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Sion 1-0 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.13 xG and FC Sion 0.88 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Sion landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against FC Sion attack 0.76 / defence 1.30, drawn from 65/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 66% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 14%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 47%, FC Sion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Sion's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.38 PPG, FC Sion 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights