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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Luzern defy the odds to beat FC ST. Gallen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern beat FC ST. Gallen 0-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.31 xG and FC Luzern 1.27 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.23 / defence 0.79 against FC Luzern attack 1.15 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 58% | Draw 24% | FC Luzern 18%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a FC Luzern win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 49%, FC Luzern 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Luzern's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.49 PPG, FC Luzern 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Luzern win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Luzern (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights