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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Lugano 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Lugano 1-0 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.29 xG and FC Lugano 0.94 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Lugano landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against FC Lugano attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 67% | Draw 20% | FC Lugano 13%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 50%, FC Lugano 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Lugano's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.52 PPG, FC Lugano 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. FC Lugano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights