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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Lugano 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Lugano 2-1 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.75 xG and FC Lugano 1.42 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against FC Lugano attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 44% | Draw 26% | FC Lugano 30%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 51%, FC Lugano 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Lugano's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG, FC Lugano 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights