🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Basel 1893.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 3-0 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.68 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.53 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 39% | Draw 29% | FC Basel 1893 33%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 56%, FC Basel 1893 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.56 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights