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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at kybunpark, Regular Season - 25, as FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.53 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.58 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.32 / defence 0.88, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 36% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 38%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 52%, FC Basel 1893 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.48 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights