FC ST. Gallen 2-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC ST. Gallen face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 meet at kybunpark in Super League (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC ST. Gallen's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Basel 1893's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Basel 1893's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC ST. Gallen, 1.30 for FC Basel 1893 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 70% of FC Basel 1893's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Basel 1893 — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 69% and FC Basel 1893 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 56% | FC Basel 1893 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.17 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.143 / defence 1.016 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.102 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.299. Data: built from FC ST. Gallen's last 36 games and FC Basel 1893's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 24%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.89 | Draw 4.43 | FC Basel 1893 4.09. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC ST. Gallen 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (FC ST. Gallen 36 games, FC Basel 1893 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 1 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 22 July 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.17 / FC Basel 1893 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.143 / def 1.016 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.102 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.761 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.46
FC Basel 1893 xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 22 July 2023 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen 2 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 1) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 53% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.14x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.10x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from FC ST. Gallen's last 36 games and FC Basel 1893's last 36, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.43
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.63
1.46
FC Basel 1893 xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
3%
35.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.46 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 12D 13L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (11W 14D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for FC ST. Gallen against 1.31 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across their last 18 home games, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 18 away games (5W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.42 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 61%.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Pre-Season
FC Basel 1893
Pre-Season
FC ST. Gallen (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC ST. Gallen
Pre-Season
FC Basel 1893
Pre-Season
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 11W 12D 13L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 11W 14D 11L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 3-0 FC Basel 1893 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
3
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for FC ST. Gallen, 61% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC ST. Gallen) and 50% (FC Basel 1893). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 61% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 50% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 83% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Basel 1893 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 2-1 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.17 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.46 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 24%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 56%, FC Basel 1893 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.25 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.