🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Sion and Yverdon Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion and Yverdon Sport finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 2.25 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.34 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 28/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 57% | Draw 21% | Yverdon Sport 22%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 54%, Yverdon Sport 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.21 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights