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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Sion.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat FC Sion 0-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.75 xG and Servette FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Servette FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against Servette FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 52% | Draw 25% | Servette FC 24%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Servette FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 49%, Servette FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Servette FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.26 PPG, Servette FC 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights