🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Sion and Servette FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion and Servette FC finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.15 xG and Servette FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Servette FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 31/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 27% | Draw 27% | Servette FC 45%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 52%, Servette FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights