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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Sion and Servette FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion and Servette FC finished level at 3-3 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.33 xG and Servette FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Sion beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Servette FC outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Servette FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 21/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 38% | Draw 30% | Servette FC 32%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 48%, Servette FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.24 PPG, Servette FC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights