FC Sion vs Lausanne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Sion (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Sion face Lausanne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Stade de Tourbillon to face FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Sion have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC Sion. A 1.40 PPG lead over Lausanne (2.00 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours FC Sion, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Lausanne — a 3D 2W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with FC Sion winning.
The historical record gives FC Sion a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Sion — key trading statistics (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lausanne — key trading statistics (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 54% and Lausanne 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 54% | Lausanne 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.69 xG and Lausanne 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 1.114 / defence 0.830 | Lausanne attack 0.585 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.869 / away 1.763. Data: 39 FC Sion games / 40 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 57% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Lausanne 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 70% | Lausanne 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 57% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Sion 1.69 / Lausanne 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 1.114 / def 0.830 | Lausanne attack 0.585 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.869 / away 1.763 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Lausanne xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Sion vs Lausanne is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
Where is FC Sion vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs Lausanne part of?
FC Sion vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 57% chance of winning, Lausanne a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Sion and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Lausanne?
Record (10 meetings): FC Sion 5W | Draws 3 | Lausanne 2W.
What form are FC Sion and Lausanne in?
FC Sion (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Sion's attack at 1.11x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.58x) against FC Sion's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.04
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.55
0.86
Lausanne xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
29.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FC Sion and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for FC Sion and 0.86 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Sion come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 15D 9L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lausanne sit at 1.02 PPG from 44 outings (11W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sion carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Lausanne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Sion's home form reads 12W 7D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Lausanne have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Sion are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne in 66%.
Defensively: FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 20W 15D 9L in their last 44 games (1.70 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 11W 12D 21L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or Lausanne away?
FC Sion's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.87 PPG; Lausanne away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Sion or Lausanne been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lausanne in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sion won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Sion
3
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 5, Lausanne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FC Sion 3-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and Lausanne?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 44%, Lausanne 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Sion) and 61% (Lausanne).
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lausanne in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play Lausanne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Sion's recent matches and 56% of Lausanne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Sion's recent games and 61% of Lausanne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.