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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Sion edge out Grasshoppers 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat Grasshoppers 2-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.36 xG and Grasshoppers 1.35 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Grasshoppers attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 37% | Draw 27% | Grasshoppers 36%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 47%, Grasshoppers 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.14 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights