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Shock result as Grasshoppers defy the odds to beat FC Sion 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grasshoppers beat FC Sion 0-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.44 xG and Grasshoppers 0.98 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Grasshoppers attack 0.73 / defence 0.90, drawn from 18/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 47% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 25%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Grasshoppers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 44%, Grasshoppers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Grasshoppers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights