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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat FC Zurich 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat FC Zurich 2-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.29 xG and FC Zurich 1.46 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against FC Zurich attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 33% | Draw 27% | FC Zurich 41%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Sion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 48%, FC Zurich 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.09 PPG, FC Zurich 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights