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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Sion edge out FC Zurich 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat FC Zurich 2-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.73 xG and FC Zurich 1.51 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against FC Zurich attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 23/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 41% | Draw 27% | FC Zurich 32%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 52%, FC Zurich 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

FC Zurich's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.17 PPG, FC Zurich 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights