FC Sion 2-1 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Sion at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Zurich at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's home record at Stade de Tourbillon: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Zurich have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Zurich's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC Sion have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Sion register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Zurich in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour FC Zurich, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for FC Sion.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Zurich winning.
It is worth noting that FC Zurich have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
FC Sion trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Zurich trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Sion 56% versus FC Zurich 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 52% | FC Zurich 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.73 xG and FC Zurich 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 1.031 / defence 1.210 | FC Zurich attack 0.984 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.268. Data: 23 FC Sion games / 56 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 41% | Draw 27% | FC Zurich 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | FC Zurich 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
FC Zurich lead the H2H ledger, but FC Sion carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 60% | FC Zurich 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 41% | Draw 27% | FC Zurich 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Sion 1.73 / FC Zurich 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 1.031 / def 1.210 | FC Zurich attack 0.984 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Zurich xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
FC Sion 2 - 1 FC Zurich.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Sion vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 41% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Sion and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
Record (5 meetings): FC Sion 0W | Draws 1 | FC Zurich 4W.
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in?
FC Sion (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC Zurich (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FC Zurich's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.76
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.24
1.51
FC Zurich xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
6%
17.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.51 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion's recent record stands at 7W 6D 10L from 23 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 8L across 23 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.17 PPG, FC Zurich on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Sion have managed 4W 5D 2L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Zurich's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.26 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 9W 6D 8L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Sion's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.55 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.55 PPG.
Have FC Sion or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Zurich runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Sion
2
Draws
4
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Zurich?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 4, FC Zurich have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Zurich 1-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 54%, FC Zurich 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Sion) and 54% (FC Zurich).
On the defensive side: FC Zurich in 36%; FC Sion have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Zurich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Sion's recent matches and 54% of FC Zurich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Sion vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC Sion's recent games and 54% of FC Zurich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC Zurich tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Sion edge out FC Zurich 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC Zurich 2-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.73 xG and FC Zurich 1.51 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against FC Zurich attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 23/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 41% | Draw 27% | FC Zurich 32%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 52%, FC Zurich 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FC Zurich's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.17 PPG, FC Zurich 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.