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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Sion and FC Winterthur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion and FC Winterthur finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 2.32 xG and FC Winterthur 0.65 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.89 / defence 0.62 against FC Winterthur attack 0.71 / defence 1.54, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 73% | Draw 20% | FC Winterthur 7%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC Winterthur 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights