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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Sion cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Winterthur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat FC Winterthur 2-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 2.04 xG and FC Winterthur 0.96 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Winterthur landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.87 / defence 0.77 against FC Winterthur attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 62% | Draw 21% | FC Winterthur 17%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 48%, FC Winterthur 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.27 PPG, FC Winterthur 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights