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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Winterthur defy the odds to beat FC Sion 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Winterthur beat FC Sion 1-2 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 2.01 xG and FC Winterthur 1.11 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FC Winterthur outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against FC Winterthur attack 0.81 / defence 1.29, drawn from 29/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 58% | Draw 22% | FC Winterthur 20%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a FC Winterthur win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 52%, FC Winterthur 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with FC Winterthur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights