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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Sion and FC Luzern share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 21, as FC Sion and FC Luzern drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.57 xG and FC Luzern 1.11 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.89 / defence 0.70 against FC Luzern attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 48% | Draw 25% | FC Luzern 27%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 47%, FC Luzern 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.29 PPG, FC Luzern 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Luzern (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights