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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Sion run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Lugano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat FC Lugano 4-0 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.56 xG and FC Lugano 1.31 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Sion beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Lugano landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against FC Lugano attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 42% | Draw 27% | FC Lugano 31%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 49%, FC Lugano 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Lugano's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.21 PPG, FC Lugano 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. FC Lugano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights