🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC Sion edge out FC Lugano 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat FC Lugano 2-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.57 xG and FC Lugano 1.46 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against FC Lugano attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 26/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 40% | Draw 25% | FC Lugano 35%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 54%, FC Lugano 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

FC Lugano's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Lugano arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with FC Sion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights