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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Basel 1893 defy the odds to beat FC Sion 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 0-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 2.07 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.27 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Sion 54% | Draw 25% | FC Basel 1893 21%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Basel 1893 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 49%, FC Basel 1893 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Sion's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights