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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Luzern and Servette FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Swissporarena, Relegation Group - 36, as FC Luzern and Servette FC drew 3-3 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 2.19 xG and Servette FC 1.92 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Luzern beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Servette FC outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.20 / defence 1.26 against Servette FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 44% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 33%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 74%, Servette FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.34 PPG, Servette FC 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Luzern (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights