🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Luzern and Servette FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern and Servette FC finished level at 2-2 at Swissporarena, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 2.56 xG and Servette FC 1.63 xG, a combined 4.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.29 / defence 1.07 against Servette FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 58% | Draw 18% | Servette FC 24%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 69%, Servette FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.35 PPG, Servette FC 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights