🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Servette FC defy the odds to beat FC Luzern 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC beat FC Luzern 3-4 at swissporarena, Championship Round - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.59 xG and Servette FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC Luzern beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Servette FC outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Servette FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.81, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 46% | Draw 26% | Servette FC 28%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Servette FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 55%, Servette FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.36 PPG, Servette FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. FC Luzern (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights