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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Luzern and Lausanne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Swissporarena, Regular Season - 9, as FC Luzern and Lausanne drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.63 xG and Lausanne 1.37 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Lausanne attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 44% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 32%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 67%, Lausanne 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.39 PPG, Lausanne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights