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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Luzern and Lausanne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern and Lausanne finished level at 1-1 at swissporarena, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.96 xG and Lausanne 1.18 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Luzern fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 1.29 / defence 0.95 against Lausanne attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 55% | Draw 23% | Lausanne 22%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 56%, Lausanne 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Luzern's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Luzern 1.39 PPG, Lausanne 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights